Climate Models Are Missing a Key Ocean Player: Calcifying Plankton Explained (2026)

The ocean's microscopic guardians are under threat, and climate models are failing to see them. Calcifying plankton, tiny organisms with hard shells, play a crucial role in regulating Earth's temperature by capturing carbon and transporting it through the ocean. A recent study published in Science reveals that these organisms are not adequately represented in the climate models used to predict our planet's future. Led by an international team from the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology at the Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) in Spain, the research highlights a critical oversight in our understanding of climate change impacts.

The study focuses on three main groups of calcifying plankton: coccolithophores, foraminifers, and pteropods. These organisms are often simplified or omitted in climate models, leading to an incomplete picture of the ocean's response to climate change. This simplification can have far-reaching consequences for our understanding of the global carbon cycle.

The Role of Calcifying Plankton in the Carbon Cycle

When climate models neglect calcifying plankton, they may miss crucial steps in the global carbon cycle. These organisms produce tiny calcium carbonate shells, which play a central role in ocean chemistry. As plankton grow and die, they transfer carbon from the atmosphere to deeper ocean layers, a process known as the ocean carbon pump. This pump helps stabilize Earth's climate over long periods and influences seawater chemistry and sediment formation, providing valuable insights into past climates.

However, a significant portion of the calcium carbonate produced by plankton does not sink to the ocean floor. Instead, it dissolves in the upper ocean, a process called 'shallow dissolution.' This dissolution is driven by biological activity, including predation, particle clumping, and microbial respiration. Despite its importance, shallow dissolution is largely absent from major Earth System Models (e.g., CMIP6) used in global climate assessments, potentially leading to inaccurate predictions of carbon movement and ocean responses to environmental stress.

Climate Threats to Different Plankton Groups

The study also emphasizes that not all calcifying plankton are created equal. Each group has unique characteristics that influence their habitat, function in marine ecosystems, and vulnerability to climate change. Coccolithophores, for instance, are the largest producers of calcium carbonate but are highly sensitive to ocean acidification due to their lack of specialized mechanisms to remove excess acidity. Foraminifers and pteropods, on the other hand, have these mechanisms but face other threats, such as declining oxygen levels and rising ocean temperatures. Together, these organisms determine carbon storage and recycling in the ocean, and treating them as a single group can oversimplify the ocean's response to climate pressures.

Improving Climate Models with Enhanced Ocean Biology

The authors urge immediate efforts to measure the calcium carbonate production, dissolution, and export of each plankton group to deeper waters. By incorporating these details into climate models, scientists can improve predictions of ocean-atmosphere interactions, long-term carbon storage, and the interpretation of sediment records used to reconstruct Earth's climate history. Ignoring the ocean's smallest organisms, as Dr. Ziveri warns, could lead to a missed understanding of critical climate dynamics. Integrating calcifying plankton into climate models could offer sharper predictions and deeper insights into how ecosystems and societies may be affected.

In conclusion, addressing these knowledge gaps is essential for developing the next generation of climate models that accurately reflect the biological complexity of the oceans, ensuring a more comprehensive understanding of our planet's future.

Climate Models Are Missing a Key Ocean Player: Calcifying Plankton Explained (2026)
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