Cranberries: Weather swings complicate crop projections
MADISON/QUÉBEC. Harsh weather patterns have impacted cranberry yields in both Canada and the United States, and opinions vary on how severe the damage will be. The global crop could edge up slightly, while EU imports are notably higher than last year.
Adverse weather conditions
Chelmer Foods’ experts report that Québec’s 2025 cranberry crop is roughly on par with 2024, a surprising outcome given the atypical climate. Early in the year, above-average rainfall disrupted the start of the growing season, followed by a prolonged midsummer drought. These extremes slowed plant development and trimmed yields slightly, but a deliberate expansion of planted area helped offset losses. Growers who invested in new plantations and refined management practices reinforced Québec’s position as a dependable supplier in the global market.
Moderate progress in the organic segment
Québec’s organic cranberry production shows a modest uptick for the first time after years of stagnation. Yet despite advances in pest control, soil health, and the use of organic inputs, the segment still faces hurdles. Variability in yields and high production costs continue to constrain growth. Market analysts say that innovations—such as integrated pest management, improved water stewardship, and varietal development suited to organic farming—remain essential to unlocking the long-term potential of this niche sector.
Global crop likely to increase slightly
In the United States, the world’s largest cranberry producer and consumer, estimates for the 2025/26 season differ widely. Chelmer Foods anticipates a notable decline because of prolonged drought and early frosts in central growing regions, while the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) projects a modest rise from last year. The INC also notes that Wisconsin’s adverse weather has reduced berry size, which could temper the overall U.S. crop. The INC’s projections place Canada at around 49,700 metric tons, while Chile is expected to grow by 8.7% to 11,600 metric tons. Overall, the INC forecasts a global crop of 205,200 metric tons for the 2025/26 season.
Global cranberry production, in mt
Country 2024/25 2025/26 Diff.
USA 142,321 143,900 1.1%
Canada 49,560 49,700 0.3%
Chile 10,670 11,600 8.7%
Total 202,551 205,200 1.3%
EU imports significantly higher
EU cranberry imports rose by nearly 11% in the first eleven months of 2025 versus the same period in 2024. The United States remained the primary supplier, shipping 18,332 metric tons to EU countries, up 7.4% from the previous year. Canada boosted shipments to the EU by an impressive 20.5% to 15,829 metric tons, while Chile delivered 6.7% less than in the prior year.
In total, the EU imported 37,507 metric tons of cranberries valued at over EUR 133 million during that timeframe. The Netherlands, Germany, and Poland were the leading buyers. The average import price stood at EUR 3.56 per kilogram, down 1.9% from the previous year.
EU cranberry imports, in mt
Partner 2024 2025 Diff.
USA 17,064 18,332 7.4%
Canada 13,135 15,829 20.5%
Chile 3,405 3,178 -6.7%
Others 291 168 -42.3%
Total 33,895 37,507 10.7%
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/01-30/11
Note: The above figures reflect reported periods and forecasts from industry sources and may be revised as new data becomes available.
Would you like deeper analysis on how weather patterns specifically impact yield components (berry size, density, and firmness) or a regional breakdown of organic versus conventional cranberry trends for 2025/26?
