The San Diego Padres are facing a challenging 2026 season, according to recent projections from FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). Despite early additions during Spring Training, the team's outlook has dimmed, with analytics suggesting a step back in performance. But here's where it gets controversial: while the numbers paint a bleak picture, the Padres have the potential to surprise and outperform these projections. Let's delve into the details and explore why the team might be an underdog worth betting on.
A Step Back in Projections
FanGraphs and PECOTA's projections indicate a decline for the Padres, with a projected record of 79-83 and a fourth-place finish in the NL West. This is despite the loss of key players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish, and Robert Suarez. The poor projections for the remaining roster from last year are dragging down any potential upside from their new additions. The lack of power and depth in the lineup, as well as the pitching woes, are contributing factors to this pessimistic outlook.
The Lineup: Power and Depth Concerns
The Padres' lineup is expected to struggle, with only Jackson Merrill projected to have a better season than last year. The bench players, including Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song, and Bryce Johnson, are not expected to make a significant impact. Miguel Andujar, the platoon partner for Gavin Sheets or the designated hitter, has a fWAR of 0.6. The team's position players as a whole have fWARs ranging from 0.5 to 1.5, with no player exceeding 5.4 (Fernando Tatis Jr.). Tatis Jr. is projected to lead the team with 30 homers, but the overall power output is expected to be low.
Pitching Struggles
The starting pitchers are also facing challenges. Michael King is projected for only 161 innings with a 3.68 ERA, Nick Pivetta takes a significant step back with a 3.92 ERA, and Joe Musgrove gets a 3.89 ERA projection. Randy Vasquez, at 4.79, and Germán Márquez, as the projected fifth starter with a 5.03 ERA, are not expected to perform well. The bullpen is also underwhelming, with lefty Adrian Morejon, a top reliever, given an fWAR of 1.1 and a 3.40 ERA. Only Mason Miller gets any respect with a 2.44 ERA and fWAR of 2.3.
Playoff Odds and National Respect
The Padres' playoff odds are slim, with the Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, and Cincinnati Reds all listed as having better chances of making the playoffs. The Dodgers are favored to win the division (94%) and make the playoffs (99%), while the Padres have 1.2% odds to win the division and 22.1% to make the playoffs. The San Francisco Giants have a 37.4% chance, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 32%. The Padres' lack of national respect is evident, as they were once considered a top team in the NL West.
The Case for Underdogs: Heart and Character
While the projections are bleak, the Padres have the potential to surprise. The team's heart and character cannot be overlooked. Players like Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, despite the inevitability of aging, have proven they can perform well into their 30s. The math used in projections doesn't account for the uniqueness of each player. If just a few players perform at the same level as last season, or if Tatis Jr. regains power and Merrill stays healthy, the offense could be fine.
The Padres won't have Luis Arraez's singles, but Tatis Jr. will have better lineup protection with Merrill (or Bogaerts?) hitting behind him. The bottom of the lineup needs improvement, but all these issues were worse last year, and the team still finished three games behind the Dodgers. A.J. Preller may not be done making moves, and there's still time for more additions.
The Snake-in-the-Grass Strategy
The Padres' strategy of adding marginal talent and relying on returning starters to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation could pay off. Randy Vasquez, out of options, must make the staff or be offloaded at the end of spring. Reports suggest he's made progress, and the team's bats, including Castellanos and Andujar, offer improvements over last year's lineup. With a little luck and the heart and character of the players, the Padres might just be the snake-in-the-grass team that surprises everyone.
